World Baseball Classic – Day 5 – Thoughts and Predictions
So, we’re onto day 5 of the World Baseball Classic and so
far Korea and Japan are leaving Tokyo for San Diego and the US will be heading
to Miami. While this much is clear, there is still much to be decided and many
questions still too asked. Pools B and D have seen big upsets with the
Netherlands and Australia taking wins against the odds. By doing this, they’ve
put themselves into the driving seat, needing only one win from their next two
games to ensure passage to the next stage of the competition.
This sounds like a relatively simple task, winning one from
two, but take the situation of the Netherlands for example. Later on today,
they’ll be facing a very strong Puerto Rican outfit on their own patch. In
their first game, they shut out Panama while showing some very impressive
offensive production from their big stars, with Ivan Rodriquez (4-4, 4R, 2 HR,
1 2B) and Carlos Delgado (3-4, 2R, 1 HR, 1 2B) being the pick of the bunch. While
the Netherlands rode their luck against the Dominicans to sneak past them, I
can’t see them managing the same against the Puerto Ricans.
If the Dutchmen do lose tonight, that would set up a big
rematch tomorrow night against the Dominican Republic. After their 9-0 defeat
of Panama, it looks like the Dominicans have got over their sluggish start
against the Netherlands and will be a lot more of a challenge in the straight
elimination tomorrow night. While I will be supporting The Netherlands (as both
the nearest country to me who are competing and the number one European team),
I can’t see them managing another massive upset which would see them qualify to
the next stage.
The Australians, in Pool B, face similar difficulties, but
in my opinion, they have an easier task. While The Netherlands sneaked through
to a victory against the Dominican Republic, the Australians showed some very
impressive talents in their mercy rule victory over the Mexicans. I think this
team does have the ability to qualify for the next stage on merit, although I believe
it will take a second victory over the Mexicans to secure it. I don’t think the
Aussies will be able to overturn the Cubans tomorrow, but assuming the Mexicans
defeat the South Africans (which I think they will without too much trouble) it
will set up a very intriguing rematch between Mexico and Australia which I think
the Aussies will take (although it will be a lot closer and the mercy rule won’t
be enforced).
This just leaves Pool C. So far, the Americans have already
secured their passage to Miami, with all three other teams all in with a chance
of joining them. Tonight, Italy and Canada face off with the loser eliminated.
While I want to see European baseball succeed, I can’t see the Italians getting
anywhere close to the Canadians in what I believe will be a very one-sided
affair. This would then leave a straight knock-out match between Venezuela and
Canada for the qualification place. This match looks like a very close contest,
with both nations having very strong sides. However Canada have got the home
advantage and in a close match-up like this, that could be the factor that tips
the game in the Canadians favour. I say Canada to win by one and qualify
alongside the USA.
Don’t ask my predictions of anything beyond the first round
at the moment. We’ve seen already in the Classic that anything can happen, so I’m
not sticking my neck too far out at this time. When the second round pools have
been decided and we’ve seen some more baseball from most of the teams, then I’ll
make predictions about what’ll happen at the next stage and beyond.
It’s Upsets Like This Which Gives Hope To All The Small Baseball Nations
As an Englishman, I was unsurprisingly disappointed when the
Great Britain National Team were again
overlooked for the World Baseball Classic, especially after the results of the
2007 European Championships which saw Great Britain come in runners-up while
the Italians finished 7th (although
to be fair, the Italians did defeat us in the group stage 6-0). Obviously, the
reason were that GB didn’t have the recent history of success in international
competition and didn’t feature in the 2006 Classic, but some international
recognition of the achievement would have been nice.
However, after watching some of the Pool A matches in Japan
and seeing the results from the others, I was very glad Team GB weren’t there. With Korea destroying Chinese Taipei 9-0 and
then themselves being on the wrong end of a 14-2 destruction by Japan, it
seemed the gulf in international baseball between the superstar-loaded nations
and the smaller countries with few big names (if any) was as wide as ever.
Then came today’s Pool D early game, featuring The
Netherlands and the Dominican Republic. On the face of it this seemed like it
would another lop-sided game which would most likely feature a mercy-rule
finish. Despite being the reigning European champions (going unbeaten through
the tournament) and finishing fourth at the 2007 Baseball World Cup, they were
facing a formidable Dominican Republic team, which even without the might A-Rod,
still had a starting line-up full of major leaguers and still had the talent
and experience to take the game by the scruff of the neck and not let the Dutch
have even a sniff of victory.
Luckily, mine (and I assume much of the baseball world’s)
thoughts were wrong and the Dutchmen were 3-0 in the top of the first, albeit partly
down to errors from the Dominicans and some good luck. Whatever you say about the top of the 1st
though, the key thing about baseball is taking your chances and The Netherlands
certainly did that. Despite this, I still believe it’d be a very one-sided
match up and with the Dominicans getting two runners in scoring positions
almost immediately, I thought my fears were coming true.
Luckily, The Netherlands held on, despite much pressure and a
lack of offensive production, and captured a famous victory over a very strong
team. This victory should give hope to many of the other smaller baseball
nations in the competition and many others who aren’t featuring in this classic.
Before this game, I was thinking of giving much of the Classic a miss, with the
one-sided results coming in from Tokyo. However, The Netherlands today have
given yet another example of just why baseball is so good and why you should
always keep watching.
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